7 Oct · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1430
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ogrocki
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Vanous
ELO 1398
FormWWLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H23-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.