7 Oct · 20:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jakub Mach
ELO 1529
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mach
RZ
🇨🇿Radek Zeman
ELO 1508
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
🌟Mach goes over total as favourite 63% (67)
Fair odds · Mach
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~72 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H14-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.