7 Oct · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1531
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1486
FormLLLWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (67)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H14-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.