8 Oct · 10:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1594
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Benes
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1540
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr
Fair odds · Benes
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H34-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.