8 Oct · 07:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OS
🇨🇿Ondrej Skvor
ELO 1493
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skvor
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1475
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 65% (118)
Fair odds · Skvor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.