8 Oct · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1603
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gembala
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1594
FormWWLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 63% (100)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H17-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.