8 Oct · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1444
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jokiel
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1391
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Jokiel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (69)
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.