8 Oct · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1603
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Gembala
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1540
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 64% (112)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H14-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-8)