8 Oct · 14:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1543
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Krenek
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1622
FormWLWWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Krenek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (130)
Fair odds · Krenek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H26-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (26-19)