8 Oct · 09:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1475
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1554
FormWWWLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 65% (118)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H22-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-11)