8 Oct · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇨🇿Adam Duch
ELO 1648
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Duch
AV
🇨🇿Anton Veliiev
ELO 1604
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Veliiev covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Duch
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H11-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.