9 Oct · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1447
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sturma
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1401
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (101)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H17-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.