9 Oct · 09:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kosacky
ELO 1666
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kosacky
VN
🇨🇿Vaclav Nadvornik
ELO 1657
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🌟Nadvornik covers set handicap as underdog 66% (35)
Fair odds · Kosacky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H13-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.