9 Oct · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1547
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Matus
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1500
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sindler🌟Sindler covers set handicap as underdog 74% (106)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H28-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.