9 Oct · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1582
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Trnka
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1536
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.