9 Oct · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1467
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stefek
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1447
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Stefek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (54)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H12-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.