9 Oct · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JB
🇨🇿Jan Benak
ELO 1667
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Benak
VN
🇨🇿Vaclav Nadvornik
ELO 1657
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Nadvornik🌟Benak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (49)
Fair odds · Benak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H14-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.