9 Oct · 17:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1500
FormLLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1594
FormWWLLL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fojtik🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 70% (63)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+94
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+94)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)