9 Oct · 17:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1732
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1650
FormWWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H43-24
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-24)