10 Oct · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1525
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1592
FormLLWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H8-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-6)