10 Oct · 09:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1537
FormWLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Matus
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1436
FormWLLLL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Matus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (98)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+101
H2H23-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-18)