10 Oct · 10:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Palan
ELO 1528
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Palan
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1525
FormWLLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Palan
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~72 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.