10 Oct · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1491
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Drozd
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1449
FormWLLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Reska
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.