10 Oct · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1612
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bartik
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1592
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ruzicka🌟Bartik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (56)
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.