10 Oct · 08:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1537
FormWLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Matus
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1443
FormWWLLW
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jancak🌟Jancak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (84)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+94
H2H12-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+94)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-10)