10 Oct · 16:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1557
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Macurak
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1633
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 64% (117)
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H25-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-15)