11 Oct · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1620
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Macurak
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1647
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
🌟Sarganek covers set handicap as underdog 62% (87)
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.