11 Oct · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1620
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chaloupka
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1633
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
🌟Sarganek covers set handicap as underdog 62% (87)
Fair odds · Chaloupka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.34· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.