11 Oct · 16:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jonas Kulveit
ELO 1516
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Melichar
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1553
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kulveit🌟Kulveit covers set handicap as underdog 74% (35)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.