12 Oct · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1456
FormWLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stusek
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1557
FormLLWLL
42%
58%
🌟Kindl goes over total as underdog 67% (89)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+101
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)