12 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1514
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lorenc
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1468
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Drozd covers set handicap as underdog 67% (42)
Fair odds · Lorenc
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.