12 Oct · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1453
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Drozd
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1468
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 62% (69)
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.