12 Oct · 08:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1453
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sindler
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1489
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Sindler rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (155)
Fair odds · Sindler
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.