12 Oct · 09:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1466
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Muller
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1476
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Muller rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (65)
Fair odds · Muller
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H17-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.