12 Oct · 14:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1580
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mrowetz
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1597
FormWWLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Moravec goes over total as underdog 64% (47)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H15-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.