12 Oct · 18:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1534
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dvorak
DS
🇨🇿David Sykora
ELO 1525
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sykora🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (69)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 37% · 2.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H9-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.