13 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1487
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chlad
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1505
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 66% (122)
Fair odds · Chlad
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.