13 Oct · 08:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1498
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1516
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sindler🌟Sindler covers set handicap as underdog 72% (113)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H28-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.