14 Oct · 08:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1483
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kantor
LK
🇨🇿Lukas Kantor
ELO 1485
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Kantor
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H11-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.