14 Oct · 08:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1589
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Moravec
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1539
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 64% (122)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H14-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.