14 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1589
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mrowetz
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Slavik
ELO 1575
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Slavik🌟Slavik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (45)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.