14 Oct · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1481
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Jr
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1483
FormWLLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Kindl goes over total as underdog 68% (92)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H25-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.