15 Oct · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1551
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kleprlik
KK
🇨🇿Kamil Kleprlik
ELO 1585
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 64% (123)
Fair odds · Kleprlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H18-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.