16 Oct · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇨🇿Oldrich Vaclahovsky
ELO 1518
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vaclahovsky
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1491
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strelec🌟Strelec covers set handicap as underdog 69% (58)
Fair odds · Vaclahovsky
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.