16 Oct · 08:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1605
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gembala
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1573
FormLWWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stusek🌟Stusek covers set handicap as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.