16 Oct · 08:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1506
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1517
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Chlad covers set handicap as underdog 64% (55)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H5-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.