16 Oct · 11:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jan Masternak
ELO 1525
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gola
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1533
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Gola
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H97-92
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.