17 Oct · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1565
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Heuman
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr
Fair odds · Heuman
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H18-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.