17 Oct · 09:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1549
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sulc
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1531
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 66% (201)
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.