17 Oct · 08:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1482
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
BJ
🇨🇿Bartolomej Jonas
ELO 1430
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jonas🌟Jonas goes over total as underdog 73% (15)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.